Antarctica has been impacted by three major events, which researchers have identified as a “perfect storm” that could finally initiate major melting on the icy continent, with major implications for exacerbating climate change.
According to new University of Southampton research, these events have begun a spiral that could move the global oceans from a hedge against climate change, to one of its primary drivers.
In a recent paper published in Science Advances, the team behind the study used satellite data to identify the root causes of record-low sea ice in the Antarctic and the potential future effects on the global climate.
The Resilient Antarctic
While other parts of the world have been feeling the effects of global climate change for some time, it was only about a decade ago, in 2015, that Antarctic sea levels stopped rising and began retreating. The reason for this sudden reversal perplexed scientists until the University of Southampton team finally identified a series of Southern Ocean events that snowballed into a major climate concern, as they pulled up warm, salty water from below the surface.
By 2023, this chain of events had destroyed enough ice to cover Greenland, pushing the lows ever further.
“Antarctic sea ice in the Southern Ocean helps drive the planet’s ocean overturning circulation,” said lead author Dr. Aditya Narayanan, an oceanographer from the University of Southampton. “However, since 2015, the region has undergone a huge transformation, with extreme ice loss around the continent.”
“What started as a slow build-up of deep-sea heat under the Antarctic sea ice was followed by a violent mixing of water, ending in a vicious cycle where it’s too warm to let ice recover,” Dr. Narayanan says. “It’s concerning because massive loss of sea ice destabilizes the world’s ocean current systems, warming our planet far quicker than expected.”
Observing a Climate Crisis
The team used an advanced ice-measuring program that combined two approaches to identify three specific events responsible for the cascading ice loss.
“We use a combination of satellite observations and computer models — both of which are part of long-running international efforts,” Dr. Narayanan told The Debrief in an email. “The satellite data come from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which compiles and distributes global sea ice records.”
“These measurements rely on instruments such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), operated by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA),” Dr. Narayanan added. “These sensors can ‘see’ through clouds and darkness, allowing us to track sea ice year-round.”
The Southampton team then ran this data through the Southern Ocean State Estimate, an advanced computer model created at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
“This is not just a standalone simulation—it combines the laws of physics with real-world observations, such as temperature, salinity, and sea ice data,” Dr. Narayanan said. You can think of it as a model that is constantly guided by observations, so it stays close to what is actually happening in the ocean.”
‘Three Horsemen’ of the Antarctic
The issues began around 2013, when strong winds raised Circumpolar Deep Water, a warm, salty solution from the deep. Then, in 2015, stronger winds mixed that water directly into the surface layer, producing the rapid ice loss observed at the time, concentrated in the east. By 2018, surface water had reached a threshold at which so much warm, salty water had surfaced that ice formation became difficult, reinforcing the cycle.
The team discovered that this oceanic ice loss is primarily occurring in the East Antarctic, where the deepwater upsurge is primarily occurring. The West is not in the clear, though, as intense cloud cover over the subtropics has now heated the ocean, leading to major ice melt between 2016 and 2019.
“More recent observations, including near-real-time data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC), show that parts of West Antarctica, especially near the Antarctic Peninsula, are again experiencing low sea ice in certain seasons,” Dr. Narayanan told The Debrief. “Without carrying out a specific study, it is difficult to pinpoint a single cause for these recent changes.”
“Most likely, they reflect a combination of atmospheric conditions, such as clouds and winds, and heat being delivered by the ocean,” Narayanan said.
The Future of the Antarctic Climate
“This isn’t just a regional problem, Antarctic sea ice acts as Earth’s mirror, reflecting solar radiation back into space,” said co-author Dr. Alessandro Silvano, also from the University of Southampton. “Its loss could destabilize the currents that store heat and carbon in the ocean, accelerating global warming, and also destabilize ice shelves that prevent glaciers from sliding into the sea, raising global sea levels.”
The researchers warn that anthropogenic climate change is fueling the warm winds driving these events in the Antarctic.
“Were these trends to persist, the planet could experience a ‘prolonged low sea-ice state,’” said co-author Professor Alberto Naveira Garabato from the University of Southampton.
“If the low sea-ice coverage prevails into 2030 and beyond, the ocean may transition from a stabilizer of the world’s climate to a powerful new driver of global warming,” Garabato added.
The paper, “Compound Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss and Southern Ocean Destratification,” appeared in Science Advances on May 8, 2026.
Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted at ryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter @mdntwvlf.