A survey of over 1.7 million suicides spanning nearly five decades and several countries has found an increase in incidents of suicide on Mondays, according to new findings that also revealed a similar rise in incidents on New Year’s Day.
The perceived link between holidays and suicides was weak overall and seemed to vary significantly by country or region, the study’s findings also revealed. The authors behind the new research say their work can help individuals, governments, and organizations better target efforts to help people experiencing a mental health crisis and their families.
“The findings provide novel scientific evidence at a global scale, which can help to establish more targeted suicide prevention and response programs related to holidays and the day of the week,” they write.
50-Year Survey Finds Increased Suicide Risk Possibly Due to Broken-Promise Effect
The study looked at data on suicides available on the Multi-city Multi-country Collaborative Research Network database. This included data collected on suicides from 740 locations across 26 countries beginning in 1971 and ending in 2019. All told, the team examined just over 1.7 million cases.
While some previous studies have found links between Thanksgiving and Christmas that indicated lower suicide rates during those holidays, the researchers found that the link was primarily present in North America and Europe.
“Multiple studies in European countries and the United States reported that end-of-year holidays such as Thanksgiving, Advent, and Christmas were associated with lower suicide or suicidal intent,” the study authors explain. However, they note, “a few other studies reported no strong linkage between suicide and general holidays.”
The team found that previously observed decreases in suicides on the weekends were valid, with notable drops on Saturdays and Sundays. This same effect appeared on general holidays like Memorial Day.
While no explanation was immediately evident for the decreased suicide rates on weekends, the authors point out that previous researchers have proposed something called the ‘broken-promise’ effect. According to the study authors, this theory suggests that “individuals may postpone committing suicide due to the hope of a “new beginning” when the cycle ends (e.g., weekends and the end of the year).”
However, the data also showed that this effect not only disappeared when the weekend was over but increased significantly on Mondays, specifically. Compared to other weekdays, the rate of suicide on Mondays averaged between 15% and 18%. When studied on an annual scale, the research found a similar cycle, showing that the end-of-the-year reductions sometimes seen in Western countries around the holiday season were completely wiped out and even somewhat reversed on New Year’s Day.
According to the researchers, the increase in suicides on Monday and New Year’s Day may represent a reverse broken-promise effect, where “people may be prone to suicidal reactions when they encounter a sense of hopelessness from a new cycle (e.g., Monday and New Year).”
Still, the researchers caution that many associations are more regional than global. For example, total suicides were lowest on Saturdays or Sundays in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, those numbers increased during weekend days in South and Central American countries, Finland, and South Africa.
Men More Likely to Commit Suicide than Women
The team’s analysis found several other notable correlations by country, sex, and region. For example, the suicide rates across the five decades studied were highest in South Korea, Japan, South Africa, and Estonia. Conversely, the rates were lowest in the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, and Paraguay.
Across all counties and territories studied, the team found that suicides were more common in men than women and also more prevalent for people 64 years of age and under versus those over 65. The increased rates of suicides for men were even more pronounced on New Year’s Day than those for women.
Notably, the overall protective effect of holidays was different for countries like China, Taiwan, and South Korea, where residents celebrate the Lunar New Year. In those countries, only South Koreans saw a reduction during the holidays.
As previously noted, suicide rates on Christmas were generally lower in North America and Europe. However, the study authors found a slight increase in suicides on Christmas in South and Central American countries. This same pattern appeared on weekends, where most countries showed decreases except for South and Central American countries, where the rates went up slightly.
Helping Plan and Prepare Mental Health Interventions
In their conclusion, the team cautions that their data is compelling but inconclusive. For example, previous studies supporting the broken-promise effect had several limitations. According to the study authors, the findings in those studies “were primarily based on Western cultures, and no multiregional study could provide comparative results across different lifestyles and cultures with unified analytical frameworks.”
Still, they note that the multi-decade data set covering much of the globe is persuasive and could be a tool for organizations and policymakers when planning outreach programs designed to help prevent suicides.
“The results of this study can help to better understand the short-term variations in suicide risks and define suicide prevention action plans and awareness campaigns,” they conclude.
The study “Association of holidays and the day of the week with suicide risk: multicountry, two stage, time series study” was published in The BMJ.
“988” Suicide and Crisis Lifeline (from USA.Gov): If you or someone you know is suicidal or in emotional distress, contact the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline immediately. Trained crisis workers are available to talk 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Christopher Plain is a Science Fiction and Fantasy novelist and Head Science Writer at The Debrief. Follow and connect with him on X, learn about his books at plainfiction.com, or email him directly at christopher@thedebrief.org.