October Surprise: North Korea Tests New Missile Revealing Country’s Latest ICBM Capabilities

North Korea
(Credit: kremlin.ru)

Welcome to this Halloween edition of The Intelligence Brief… on Thursday, it was learned that North Korea had launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that showcases the country’s move toward use of powerful new projectile technologies. In our analysis, we’ll be exploring 1) what we know about the country’s latest missile test, 2) the projectile’s high-altitude operation, 3) what the launch conveys about the country’s concerning aspirations, and 4) what the technical aspects of the missile launched on Thursday reveals about the country’s military objectives.

Quote of the Week

“The United States condemns these actions and calls on the DPRK to refrain from further unlawful and destabilizing acts.”

– U.S. Indo-Pacific Command statement

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With that all behind us, it’s time we shift our focus over to the concerning “October surprise” U.S. officials learned of this morning, following the latest concerning missile launch by one of its adversary nations in the Pacific.

North Korea Launches an ICMB

On Thursday, frightening news arrived just in time for Halloween as it was announced that North Korea had launched a new advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), in a test that precedes the looming U.S. election by just days.

Launched at 7:10 a.m. local time, the missile reportedly reached its peak altitude while passing over the Sea of Japan before descending west of Okushiri Island.

The test further escalates mounting tensions between North Korea and the United States, along with its allies in the Pacific, and is believed to have achieved the longest flight time presently known involving a missile launched by the nation.

A High-Altitude Test

The missile test was announced by Japan’s defense ministry, and notably also represents what is believed to be North Korea’s highest-altitude test involving such a weapon, having reached an unprecedented 4,350 miles.

Outpacing previous missiles in range and altitude by a significant margin, the recent test even surpassed the observed capabilities of the Hwasong-18, a solid-fuel missile North Korea tested less than a year ago.

It is believed the missile’s high-altitude operation may have been employed as a strategy to help reduce the international repercussions of long-distance operations, which would have had more significant territorial impact. Such practices are in keeping with past strategies North Korea has employed during similar tests.

Thursday’s test advances the country’s objectives of having an ICBM capable of reaching the United States, potentially armed with a nuclear payload. The timing of the launch, carried out in advance of a contentious American election, also appears to be partially in response to the deepening collaboration between Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

North Korea’s Dangerous Aspirations

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who was on-site for Thursday’s launch, has sharply condemned the U.S.’s strategic partnerships with other Pacific nations, and justified Thursday’s launch as a response to ongoing military exercises its enemies have carried out nearby.

The U.S. and other nations have expressed similar unrest over Pyongyang’s military cooperation with Moscow. Recently, North Korea deployed thousands of troops to Russia, where some are believed to have participated in the country’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears alongside Russian president Vladimir Putin (Credit: kremlin.ru).

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, joined during a media appearance by Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Kim Yong Hyun, said the U.S. is “closely tracking the unprecedented level of direct military cooperation between Russia and the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].”

“The evidence now suggests that North Korea has sent around 10,000 soldiers to train in eastern Russia,” Austin said yesterday, “and some of these DPRK troops have already moved closer to Ukraine.”

Following Thursday’s missile test, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol condemned the launch, saying such actions significantly raise security concerns for the region.

Technology in Transition

A significant factor involving Thursday’s test involves the technical capabilities exhibited during the missile test, which showcase Pyongyang’s transition toward using solid-fuel technologies.

Whereas liquid-fueled systems require on-site preparation that impose significant limitations on their use and curb the speed of their deployment, solid-fuel ICBMs are capable of much faster launch times, which also makes them less easily detected early on.

The tactical advantages afforded by solid-fuel missiles—namely increased launch speed—play a significant role in the changing approaches North Korea is taking to its military operations. Despite the fact that U.S. officials expected such a test, Pyongyang’s lack of regard for international sanctions and U.N. Security Council resolutions, which currently prohibit such ballistic missile activities, showcase a rising concern amid mounting international pressure.

North Korea
(Credit: kremlin.ru)

On Thursday afternoon, a statement issued by the U.S. Department of State characterized the launch as a “flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions.”

“We strongly urge the DPRK to immediately cease its series of provocative and destabilizing actions,” the statement read, “that threaten peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.”

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That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or Tweet at me @MicahHanks.

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