Mysterious drone incursions continue to raise alarms across Europe, with German authorities recently reporting multiple sightings near sensitive military installations. In response, Germany has openly suggested that Russia may be behind these incursions and has taken unprecedented steps to strengthen its drone defense measures.
The latest incidents and similar unexplained activity over NATO facilities and critical infrastructure have heightened concerns about potential efforts involving espionage or sabotage.
On Sunday, January 12, German authorities reported that nearly a dozen mysterious drones had been seen near Manching Air Base in Bavaria, close to Ingolstadt.
“The police officers deployed were able to detect up to ten drones flying over the area,” Bavarian State Police said in a statement. “Despite intensive search measures, including the involvement of a police helicopter, the person or persons responsible could not be identified.”
Officials added that throughout mid-December, multiple other drone incursions occurred over Manching Air Base and a German armed forces (Bundeswehr) site at Neuburg an der Donau.
Similar unexplained drone incursions were also reported over the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in southwestern Germany and at facilities belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemicals giant BASF.
According to the German media, several UAVs reported over Ramstein Air Base- headquarters for the U.S. Air Forces in Europe and NATO Allied Air Command- were said to be flying at over 100 mph and clearly not hobbyist drones.
These incidents echo similar drone sightings reported late last year over the continental U.S., particularly along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York, as well as near Royal Air Force bases in Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell in eastern England.
American officials have asserted that last year’s wave of mystery drone sightings over the U.S. were largely misidentifications of conventional aircraft. They have also dismissed the possibility that these sightings were the work of a foreign adversary, adding that the events posed no national security or public safety risk.
“At this time, we have no evidence that these activities are coming from a foreign entity or are the work of an adversary,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said at a December 11 press briefing.
In sharp contrast, German authorities have been notably forthright in suggesting that a state actor is likely responsible for the recent waves of mystery drone incidents in their airspace.
Intelligence, defense, and law enforcement officials have identified Russia as the most probable culprit. Authorities believe the purpose of these incursions is likely espionage or preparation for acts of sabotage.
Although no definitive links to Moscow have been established, the State Office of Criminal Investigation and the Central Office for Combating Extremism and Terrorism announced on Monday, January 13, that the recent drone sightings over military installations in Bavaria are being investigated as potential acts of Russian espionage.
“Since it cannot be ruled out that military facilities and arms partners or companies are being spied on in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, extensive search measures were carried out to identify the drone pilots,” Bavarian State Police said in a statement.
In August 2024, drones were repeatedly spotted flying over nuclear power plants, land-based liquefied natural gas terminals, and chemical plants near Brunsbüttel, Germany, along the North Sea coast.
The German media outlet Bild reported that investigators suspect Moscow’s involvement in the incidents near Brunsbüttel. Citing unnamed law enforcement sources, Bild claimed that Russia is believed to have used Orlan-10 drones launched from a civilian shipping vessel in the North Sea.
The STS Orlan-10 is a fairly unsophisticated and inexpensive fixed-wing UAV used extensively by Russia for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. According to the U.S. military’s Operational Environment Data Integration Network (ODIN), the Orlan-10 has a ferry range exceeding 370 miles and a maximum speed of just under 100 mph. During reconnaissance missions, it typically operates at altitudes of 3,000 to 5,000 feet, though it has a service ceiling of up to 16,000 feet.
The Orlan-10 can fly autonomously using pre-programmed waypoints and has a flight endurance of up to 16 hours, making it well-suited for extended operations.
Based on reports from Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine, Russia typically deploys multiple Orlan-10 UAVs in groups, with each drone being used for complementary purposes such as imagery collection, electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and data relay.
The reasons behind investigators’ suspicions that Russian Orlan-10 UAVs were responsible for the August drone incursions near Brunsbüttel remain unclear. However, many mystery drone sightings reported across Europe and the U.S. in recent years share striking similarities with the characteristics and flight patterns of Orlan-10 UAVs, including their tendency to operate in groups.
Outwardly, American authorities have largely downplayed the significance of mystery drone sightings over the U.S. Meanwhile, for the past year, German intelligence and defense officials have been expressing serious concerns that Russia is planning acts of sabotage targeting Western critical infrastructure and NATO military sites.
In November, it was revealed that a series of fires that broke out at the Leipzig airport in Germany stemmed from a plot by Russia’s military intelligence agency, GRU, to place concealed explosives within cargo planes being flown to the U.S. and Canada.
“The group’s goal was also to test the transfer channel for such parcels, which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America and Canada,” Polish prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska told BBC.
In the last several months, Russian intelligence agents have been accused of being behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In July 2024, U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a second highest level of security alert, Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “CHARLIE.” According to DoD regulations, FPCON CHARLIE “applies when an incident occurs, or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely.”
During the heightened alert, U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe were prohibited from wearing uniforms off-base, and foreign nationals employed at installations were denied entry.
“U.S. European Command is taking steps to increase vigilance for our service members, their families, and our facilities,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said in a press briefing. “This was done out of an abundance of caution. I won’t get into more specifics.”
A senior official from the U.S. Intelligence Community, speaking on a condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak on the record, told The Debrief that the heightened security measures were linked to intelligence about planned attacks on defense facilities by Russian agents.
The heightened security measures at U.S. bases lasted only a few days. However, less than two weeks after issuing the alert, U.S. and German officials announced they had uncovered and disrupted a series of Russian plots to assassinate several European defense industry executives, including Armin Papperger, CEO of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
Concerns over the potential use of Russian drones for espionage or sabotage have prompted German officials to propose an amendment to the Aviation Security Act. Expected to be approved by Germany’s cabinet on Wednesday, January 15, the amendment would grant military authorities the power to shoot down unidentified drones operating in German airspace.
The authority for the military to use kinetic force against unauthorized drones is likely in response to the fact that non-kinetic counter-UAS measures, such as electronic jamming, spoofing, or directed energy weapons (DEWs), have proven to be ineffective at stopping these incursions.
In late November 2024, a suspicious drone was spotted near the British Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth in the early morning hours while it was docked at the Port of Hamburg. German port police attempted to neutralize the UAV using HP-47 electronic jammers. However, the drone apparently deployed electronic countermeasures, allowing it to evade capture.
As previously reported by The Debrief, despite significant advancements, non-kinetic counter-drone technologies remain in their infancy, facing challenges such as limited range and high energy demands. Currently, kinetic solutions—using munitions to physically shoot down drones—remain the only consistently reliable countermeasure.
No conclusive evidence has been presented linking Russia to the global waves of mystery drones. However, Germany’s decision to openly accuse Moscow and authorize its military to shoot down unauthorized drones underscores Berlin’s stance that these incursions pose a severe national security and public safety threat—an urgency not echoed by the United States.
At a DGAP think tank event in Berlin last November, Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst), warned of the serious consequences posed by Russia’s aggressive covert activities. According to Kahl, these hybrid attacks on NATO allies are likely designed to test the red lines established by Western partners and to sow division among NATO members.
“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause,” Kahl said. “At the same time, the increasing ramp-up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.”
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com