Russia doesn’t rely on the ability to outgun its enemies to win wars. Instead, it tries to outthink them by planting ideas that make its opponents defeat themselves.
A newly released report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides a comprehensive examination of Russia’s cognitive warfare strategy—a shadowy, multi-generational campaign designed to manipulate how people perceive reality.
Unlike conventional warfare, cognitive warfare is a more insidious form of conflict. It targets beliefs, perceptions, and the decisions of adversaries. Russia’s goal is to subtly shape Western reasoning, often leading nations to act in ways that benefit the Kremlin without realizing they’ve been manipulated.
“The Kremlin is not arguing with us,” the report warns. “It is trying to enforce assertions about Russia’s manufactured portrayal of reality as the basis for our own discussions and then allow us to reason to conclusions that benefit the Kremlin.”
ISW authors argue that Russia’s cognitive warfare is far from a scattershot campaign of troll posts and misinformation. It is a deliberate, multi-layered strategy deeply rooted in the Cold War doctrine of “reflexive control.”
Reflexive control is a Soviet-era psychological warfare concept designed to manipulate an adversary’s decision-making by shaping the information they receive and the assumptions they rely on. The aim is to have opponents adopt the attacker’s false perceptions and, through their own reasoning, reach conclusions that ultimately serve the attacker’s interests.
While Cold War-era reflexive control tactics were primarily confined to military and intelligence domains, cognitive warfare operates across political, social, cultural, and economic spheres. It targets not only military leaders and policymakers but also entire populations, using modern digital platforms and media ecosystems to subtly erode trust, sow confusion, and influence long-term perceptions.
In essence, cognitive warfare takes the psychological manipulation principles of reflexive control and amplifies them into a multi-theater, multi-generational strategy aimed at reshaping reality.
The central argument of ISW’s report, A Primer on Russian Cognitive Warfare, is that cognitive warfare has become Moscow’s primary strategy—one that Kremlin leaders have refined into a sophisticated form of psychological and perceptual manipulation.
From disinformation campaigns to diplomatic theater, the Kremlin’s tactics are designed to make enemies doubt themselves, freeze policymakers into inaction, and paint Russian objectives as inevitable or even just.
The ISW report argues that cognitive warfare has become one of Russia’s most powerful weapons because it allows Moscow to punch above its weight.
“Russia is not weak per se, given its sizable military capabilities and potential. But Russia is weak relative to its strategic goals,” the report reads. “The Kremlin uses cognitive warfare to close gaps between its goals and its means.”
In other words, lacking the physical force to achieve regional dominance or immediately conquer Ukraine, Russia has turned to perception as a force multiplier.
Cognitive Warfare: More Than Disinformation
Cognitive warfare might sound like just another word for fake news or propaganda. However, the ISW report makes clear that it is far more expansive—and more dangerous.
“Cognitive warfare is distinguished by its focus on achieving its aims by influencing the opponent’s perceptions of the world and decision-making rather than by the direct use of force,” the report explains.
That means everything, from international press conferences to nuclear saber-rattling, becomes part of an orchestrated campaign to sow confusion, instill fear, or lull adversaries into complacency. The Kremlin doesn’t necessarily need you to believe its version of events—it just requires you to doubt your own.
This is not a short-term effort. Russian cognitive warfare operates across generations and geographic theaters. Some narratives, such as the alleged righteousness of Russia’s claim to Ukrainian land or the moral corruption of the West, have been carefully cultivated for decades. They can lie dormant until a moment of crisis—then suddenly become the foundation of a new political reality.
A Playbook for Power Through Perception
One of the more alarming insights from the ISW report is the extent to which cognitive warfare is deeply embedded in every level of Russian strategy, encompassing governance, occupation, and global influence. This comprehensive approach necessitates a holistic counter-strategy.
In Ukraine, for instance, cognitive tactics were deployed long before the first Russian tanks crossed the border. Kremlin-backed narratives about separatism began as early as 2004, setting the stage for the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion. Each military maneuver was preceded and accompanied by a barrage of tailored messaging designed to legitimize aggression and discourage international response.
In occupied territories, Russia has seized local television stations, flooded media with pro-Kremlin content, and even altered school curricula to reinforce its version of history. According to ISW, the goal is straightforward: create a reality in which resistance appears futile or dangerous and Russian control seems inevitable.
From Trolls to Treaties: The Tools of Cognitive War
Russia’s cognitive warfare is not limited to social media or fringe websites. It spans the entire information ecosystem—including international diplomacy, economic partnerships, and even religious institutions.
The report reveals that Russian media outlets, such as TASS and RT, are collaborating with foreign media organizations, a move that enables Russian narratives to leverage trusted platforms. This includes “investing in a generation of Russia-favorable journalists through training programs.”
One of the more well-known recent examples of this strategy came in September 2024, when the U.S. Department of Justice indicted two Russian nationals affiliated with the Kremlin-backed outlet RT. The pair were charged with money laundering and conspiracy to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act after allegedly funneling millions of dollars to an American media company that paid influencers to spread pro-Kremlin narratives.
Meanwhile, ISW says the Russian Orthodox Church, state agencies like Rossotrudnichestvo, and energy giants like Rosatom have also been mobilized as full-fledged actors in the information war.
“[Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate] ROC MP spreads Russian narratives aimed at justifying Russia’s war in Ukraine to congregants in Russia, Ukraine, and worldwide,” the report reads. “The ROC MP, for example, reportedly directed all its clergy to change their liturgy to include pro-war prayers in support of Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine.”
Russia’s cognitive warfare strategy isn’t only about pushing pro-Kremlin narratives. A core part of the Kremlin’s strategy is to erode Western unity from within. ISW documents how Russia has backed sympathetic political candidates in NATO countries, exploited energy dependencies, and fueled internal debates around support for Ukraine—all to fracture consensus and stall meaningful responses.
Exploiting Uncertainty, Manufacturing Inaction
Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of cognitive warfare is that it often doesn’t aim to persuade but merely to paralyze.
“Moscow does not have to persuade opponents that its views and aims are correct—just that resisting Russia is unnecessary, unjustified, or unwise,” the ISW report reads. “This requirement presents a much lower threshold for success than persuading opponents to agree with Moscow, particularly in a global information environment already conditioning people to say, ‘Well, who really knows?'”
This subtle undermining of will can have profound consequences. The report notes that Russian narratives around nuclear escalation and the deployment of tactical Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus were effective in delaying the West’s delivery of tanks and critical weapons to Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.
“This whole episode was intended to shape Western perceptions rather than to change Russia’s nuclear capabilities,” the report notes. “The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus fundamentally does not change the assessed Russian risk of nuclear escalation, given that Russia has long fielded nuclear-capable weapons able to strike any target that tactical nuclear weapons based in Belarus could hit.”
Even when such information operations fail outright—as in the case of Sweden’s NATO accession—they often still shape the deliberation process in ways that benefit the Kremlin.
Cognitive Warfare: Also The Kremlin’s Achilles’ Heel
The ISW report also outlines apparent weaknesses in the Kremlin’s strategy—and ways the West can counter them.
Chief among those weaknesses is Russia’s dependency on illusion. The strength of its cognitive warfare lies in making Russia look more powerful and united than it truly is. But the facade cracks when exposed to real-world consequences.
For example, Ukraine’s successful military actions—like “Operation Spider Web,“ whereby the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out a series of coordinated drone strikes on five military airfields deep inside Russian territory—undermine Kremlin messaging about Russian dominance and exposed the limits of its conventional power.
Similarly, international exposure of Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere triggered increased Western support, demonstrating that truth, when effectively disseminated, can short-circuit the Kremlin’s narrative control.
ISW advises that the most effective counter to cognitive warfare is not to mirror it but to reject the underlying premises it tries to establish. If the West refuses to operate within Moscow’s invented reality—such as the idea that Russia is entitled to a post-Soviet sphere of influence—it can begin to reassert agency over its own decision-making.
Looking Ahead
The ISW report closes with a clear call to action. Rather than scrambling to debunk each individual lie, democratic nations must focus on the bigger picture: the strategic stories Russia wants the world to accept. By understanding and dismantling those foundational premises, the West can rob Moscow of its most significant asymmetric advantage.
“The Kremlin overcompensates for these weaknesses by intensifying narratives to exaggerate Russian strength,“ ISW writes. “Putin is thus vulnerable to a Western strategy that would consistently unmask and highlight Russia’s weaknesses.“
Ultimately, as Russia continues to wage a war for hearts and minds, the question for the West is no longer whether it is under attack but whether it is willing to fight back in the cognitive domain.
“The first step to negating Russia’s cognitive warfare is not to play by Russia’s rules, given that the Kremlin’s strategy of ‘reflexive control‘ depends on Russia’s ability to trigger a reflex or a reaction in their opponent,“ ISW authors conclude. “The key to neutralizing Russia’s cognitive warfare is to recognize when the Kremlin is attempting to implant premises to shape our reasoning and reject those premises.”
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com