The Intelligence Brief

Future Wars Could Stretch From the Seabed to Cislunar Space, America’s Top General Warns

Micah Hanks·
5 min read
Gen. Dan Caine hyper-transparent war in space
(DoW photo by Benjamin Applebaum)

Welcome to this edition of The Intelligence Brief… This week, America’s top military officials are warning that future conflicts could unfold across an increasingly “hyper-transparent” battlefield, where autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and ubiquitous surveillance make it harder than ever for military forces to hide—and where the potential arena for conflict could extend all the way to cislunar space. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) why U.S. forces may increasingly find themselves tracked in real time by adversaries with access to advanced surveillance technologies, 2) how AI, autonomous systems, and cyber capabilities are reshaping the battlefield of tomorrow, 3) why the U.S. military is expanding its focus beyond Earth orbit into cislunar space, and 4) how the emergence of space-control weapons is raising unresolved questions about the laws governing future conflict in space.

Quote of the Week

“You just can’t hide anymore.” 

– Brig. Gen. Todd Benson, commander of U.S. Space Forces Central

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The U.S. Military Is Preparing for a New Era of Warfare

This week, America’s top military officer warned that U.S. forces should anticipate a future where the potential arena for conflict could extend all the way to cislunar space.

The statements were made by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine during a keynote address at the Air & Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference on September 16, arriving just days after the revelation that the U.S. Space Force has launched space weapons into Earth’s orbit.

“We have to assume from now on that our formations will be hunted by autonomous systems, jammed across the spectrum and tracked in real time,” Caine said during the address.

“We have to transition the joint force to be prepared to fight and win our future wars by generating and delivering lethality at scale with an agile, optimized, high-low mix of combat capabilities,” Caine added.

“Hyper-Transparent Warfare”

Caine’s views mirror similar sentiments that were expressed by Brig. Gen. Todd Benson, commander of U.S. Space Forces Central, described at the conference an emerging era of “hyper-transparent warfare.”

The concept centers on commercial satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, which have effectively helped to level the playing field, ensuring that even smaller countries or non-state groups that traditionally would not have had access to such warfighting capabilities can now monitor the activities of the world’s largest military forces.

Such capabilities were once exclusive to major powers and are increasingly becoming more accessible and affordable to smaller nations and groups.

“Nothing you do today is without being seen,” Benson said.

The Changing Battlefield of Tomorrow

Fundamental to the views expressed by both officials this week is the necessity for adapting to the 21st century warfare environment, which will necessitate military operations without assuming secure areas, uncontested access, or uninterrupted supply channels—all conditions that the U.S. and other militaries have historically relied upon.

The key elements that are driving such changes are obvious ones: artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and other components of cyber warfare are all increasingly influencing threat identification and decision-making for modern warfighters.

“Our task, my friends, is to adapt right now, so the Joint Force is prepared to fight, endure, and win, in global contested environments, from the seabed to cislunar space,” Caine said this week.

Conflict in Space

Cislunar space, defined roughly as the space surrounding Earth as far as the vicinity of the Moon, remains somewhat nebulous in terms of government and legal definitions. During his remarks this week, Caine did not specify whether he envisioned future military operations taking place on the Moon itself.

Caine and Benson’s comments this week arrived amid a recent push by the U.S. Space Force for monitoring activity beyond conventional Earth orbit. Recently, Lt. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, head of Space Force Combat Forces Command, said China’s activities in Earth’s orbit have been a primary driver of the U.S. military’s focus on expanding capabilities for the detection and tracking of spacecraft.

Unresolved Questions

However, the military expansion into space raises several legal questions, some of which currently have no clear answers. According to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, the Moon and other celestial bodies are only to be used for peaceful purposes, and all military activities—including the establishment of bases, weapons systems, or military operations—are prohibited on their surfaces.

Where things become confusing is that the treaty does not institute a comprehensive prohibition of conventional military capabilities in orbit or throughout space. Such distinctions are, therefore, receiving renewed attention amid the public acknowledgements this week by senior Air Force and Space Force officials that the United States possesses on-orbit space-control weapons.

At present, few details have been offered about the specific capabilities of these weapons, beyond a mere acknowledgement of their deployment into Earth’s orbit.

Gaining Advantage in an Uncertain Future Fight

Such issues complicate the existing uncertainties involving what operations can legally be undertaken in space, and raise new questions about how the law applies to armed conflict, and the use of kinetic and non-kinetic weaponry in cislunar space.

“Future conflicts will demand that we operate without the assumptions of uncontested access, secure rear areas, or uninterrupted or uncontested sustainment,” Caine said this week, emphasizing that the immediate challenge the U.S. military faces will be to prepare for an increasingly transparent battlefield that offers little in terms of concealment and other benefits relied upon in traditional combat situations.

“In the future fight, advantage will go to the side who can see first, who can understand first, decide first, and act first,” Caine added.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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