The Intelligence Brief

The Antarctic Ozone Hole Has Grown “Unusually Large,” NASA and NOAA Scientists Reveal

Micah Hanks·
4 min read
Antarctic ozone hole
Image Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Welcome to this edition of The Intelligence Brief… This week, NASA and NOAA scientists revealed that the Antarctic ozone hole has expanded to one of its largest sizes in nearly half a century, driven by unusual atmospheric conditions that have raised new questions about the recovery of Earth’s protective ozone layer. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how the Antarctic ozone hole reached its seventh-largest seasonal average in 48 years of monitoring, covering an area more than twice the size of the United States, 2) how an unusually powerful polar vortex created conditions favorable for widespread ozone depletion, 3) why international efforts under the 1987 Montreal Protocol have helped prevent the ozone hole from growing even larger, and 4) why scientists remain optimistic that Earth’s ozone layer is on track for recovery by the 2070s, despite this year’s unusually dramatic expansion.

Quote of the Week

“The ozone layer is healing.” 

– NASA ozone researcher Paul Newman

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RECENT NEWS from The Debrief

Antarctic Ozone Hole Grows to One of the Largest on Record

This week, scientists revealed that the Antarctic ozone hole has grown to one of the largest sizes seen in the last half-century.

Citing “atypical” atmospheric conditions, scientists with NASA and NOAA say the ozone hole over Antarctica has expanded to its seventh-largest seasonal average size in 48 years of monitoring.

While the recent growth of the Antarctic ozone hole makes it one of the largest seen in many years, scientists say that long-term recovery still seems to be on track for Earth’s protective ozone layer. Here’s a look at what we currently know.

Sudden Growth of Antarctica’s Ozone Hole

According to recent findings, scientists determined that between September 7 and October 13, 2026, the Antarctic ozone hole averaged close to 9.6 million square miles in size. That’s more than twice the size of the entire United States, with its overall maximum reached on September 18.

At that time, the ozone hole extended to an astounding 10.5 million square miles. Compared to record sizes, the September 18 maximum comprised nearly 90% of the largest ozone hole size tracked within the last three decades, which occurred back in 2000.

This year, the unusually large growth was attributable to an unusually strong Antarctic polar vortex. This circulating atmospheric system produces powerful winds that can capture extremely cold air, containing it in pockets above Antarctica—conditions that are favorable for ozone destruction.

Scientists Say Recovery Remains on Track

Fortunately, despite the alarming growth recently observed, overall recovery appears to still be on track.

“The annual ozone hole has been forming later in the season in recent years, which tells us the ozone layer is healing,” said NASA ozone researcher Paul Newman in a statement last week. “But an unusually powerful polar vortex has extended ozone depletion in the Antarctic this season, allowing the hole to grow to proportions we haven’t seen in a decade.”

While the ozone hole is presently among the largest sizes seen in recent decades, it could have been far larger if not for international efforts that have worked to reduce the use of chemicals that have contributed to ozone depletion over the years.

Under the 1987 Montreal Protocol, concerted efforts to phase out the use of substances like chlorofluorocarbons, which were once commonly used in air conditioning and refrigeration technologies, were adopted by countries around the world. Since reaching their peak, the concentration of chemicals linked to ozone depletion, such as chlorine, has declined in the Antarctic stratosphere by nearly one-third.

Full Recovery Within the Next Half Century?

Even more alarming than the current size of the Antarctic ozone hole, therefore, is how large it might have been if such problems had remained unmitigated. Presently, scientists estimate that the overall size of the hole could have been anywhere from 1-2 million square miles larger this year.

While seasonal weather remains influential when it comes to ozone depletion, NASA and NOAA scientists continue working to guide the situation, with recovery expected to occur sometime in the 2070s.

Those interested in learning more about the Antarctic ozone hole, and how chemicals and other factors influence its growth over time, can find additional information on NOAA’s South Pole Ozone website page, as well as on NASA’s Ozone Watch page.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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