Welcome to this week’s Intelligence Brief… Recently, an after-action report on the U.S. government’s readiness in the face of potential threats from space has revealed concerns about our vulnerability to severe solar storms. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how a training exercise conducted last year reveals how federal agencies and technological infrastructure might be impacted in the aftermath of cosmic events, 2) how the data reveals many agencies could be blindsided by such an event, 3) the short timeframe agencies may have for taking action following a major solar event, and 4) what the report’s findings reveal about the path forward, and how to prepare.
Quote of the Week
“[T]here is a critical need to develop more robust forecasting capabilities of space weather drivers and effects.”
– Space Weather Tabletop Exercise After Action Report
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Space Weather Readiness Put to the Test in First Nationwide Drill
New concerns have arisen in the wake of a nationwide drill in which U.S. government agencies simulated the fallout from an intense solar storm. The results revealed a need for better, faster coordination and communication in the face of potential cosmic threats.
The recent findings also reveal the critical need to raise public awareness of the potential issues arising from severe solar storms in the future.
The new revelations came following a first-of-its-kind “Space Weather Tabletop Exercise” (SWx TTX), conducted last year from May 8–9, 2024. Organized by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) task force, the exercise was undertaken in coordination with NOAA, NASA, FEMA, and the National Science Foundation. It simulated the effects of a severe solar storm and its consequences following the largest geomagnetic storm in more than two decades.
Although the drill has been characterized as a milestone in assessing national preparedness, it also highlights a few significant concerns and vulnerabilities in how agencies communicate, respond, and prepare for potential threats from our Sun.
Coordinating for the Cosmic Unknown
Events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can prove especially dangerous to a range of technologies we rely on daily. From GPS networks and satellite systems to power grids on the ground, the potential for unusually strong solar activity to interfere with our everyday lives remains ever present.
A major takeaway from the preparedness drill, detailed in a recent report outlining its key findings, is that many agencies at the state and federal levels are at risk of being potentially blindsided by the aftereffects of such a storm. Even basic continuity plans designed to help curb the impact of post-solar storm issues appear to be lacking as they currently stand.
Even more fundamentally concerning is the fact that space weather overall remains poorly understood beyond the work of specialized science agencies, leaving potential gaps in post-storm mitigation efforts.
For its assessments, the 2024 SWx TTX drill produced a simulation of an escalating solar crisis that unfolded over eight days in early 2028. With a domino effect in failures of power, communication, and navigation systems and exposure to unprecedented solar radiation, the exercise became particularly concerning for astronauts in space and on the Moon in anticipation of NASA’s current efforts under its Artemis mission.
The simulations revealed significant gaps in the ways critical information is shared and acted on under such unprecedented conditions.
Four Pillars of Preparedness for Solar Storms
Several primary objectives that the SWx TTX focused on included raising awareness of the potential risks and impacts of space weather, as well as finding ways of improving national readiness to help protect Earth’s critical infrastructure. The drill also looked at ways of evaluating public messaging and communication between agencies during a potential solar event, and finally, examined potential vulnerabilities that could pose special threats to space assets such as lunar missions.
Drawing from more than 30 departments and agencies, the simulations, which were conducted jointly in Maryland and in Colorado, produced a few promising results. Namely, close to 93% of attendees felt the exercise helped improve communication between agencies. Still, many also said that carrying scientific data over into a drill aimed at real-world situations remained challenging.
A 30 Minute Warning—At Best
One of the most concerning discoveries the exercise brought attention to is just how little warning many agencies will have in advance of severe solar storms. A major CME, it was found, might only provide about half an hour of preparation time before reaching the Earth, if that.
While such a narrow timeframe is likely to accurately estimate the prep time agencies would have before a CME strikes Earth, it would be insufficient to execute a comprehensive plan for protection.
In light of this revelation, the SWORM task force recommended accelerating the development of advanced early warning systems, even if those systems cannot yet offer pinpoint accuracy.
The report also called for greater investment in space-based monitoring infrastructure, including next-generation satellite arrays and radiation sensors. These would ideally be deployed through public-private partnerships and international collaboration to expand forecasting capabilities and coverage.
A Hopeful Outlook?
Stating what seems fairly obvious in the aftermath of last year’s exercises and what it revealed, the report (which can found here) states that “Space weather is a complex subject,” adding that its aftereffects are primarily only studied in depth by agencies like NOAA and NASA, pointing to the necessity for broader agency and public education on potential space weather threats.
Fortunately, the outcome of last year’s exercise already appears to be paving the way toward alleviating some of those concerns.
“The May 2024 SWx TTX was a good first step toward educating emergency management and public safety agencies across the nation regarding the concept of SWx and its range of potential impacts,” the report states. “This type of educational outreach must continue as well as efforts to improve awareness of SWx impacts for critical infrastructure stakeholders and owners.”
That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.
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