One of the most significant types of extreme weather events impacting Europe today—so-called “supercell thunderstorms”—could soon increase substantially in frequency in the coming years due to climate change, according to new research published in Science Advances.
Characterized by torrents of heavy rain, hail, and strong winds generated by a rotating updraft of warm, humid air, these storms can be devastating to both life and property. The research was a collaboration among several European institutions, including the Institute of Geography, the Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, the Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks at the University of Bern, and the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich.
Simulating Storm Futures
To conduct the study, researchers relied on a highly detailed simulation of supercell thunderstorms. This digital map represents the most precise rendering of individual storm cells ever achieved, revealing a significant projected increase in such events across the Alpine regions, as well as parts of Central and Eastern Europe.
Researchers estimated that the northern Alps could experience a 50% increase in supercell activity with a 3°C temperature rise compared to pre-industrial levels.
One of the major challenges in past research has been the lack of uniformity in weather radar systems across Europe, making data comparisons difficult.
“This makes cross-border storm detection more difficult,” said co-author Monika Feldmann of the Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks and the Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern.
Modeling Supercell Thunderstorms
The new model, developed by the scClim project at ETH Zurich, offers precision down to 2.2 kilometers and can track storms lasting more than an hour. Researchers ran an eleven-year simulation and compared the results with real-world storm data collected between 2016 and 2021, successfully validating the model.
“Our simulation largely reflects reality, although it captures slightly fewer storms,” Feldmann noted.
While the model provides unprecedented resolution, it still misses some of the smallest and briefest supercell thunderstorms, accounting for minor discrepancies between expected and observed results.
Alpine Region Under Threat
The Alps emerged as the most vulnerable region in the study. The simulation projects an annual total of 38 supercell thunderstorms on the northern slopes and 61 on the southern slopes in the coming years. These figures represent a 52% increase in the north and a 36% increase in the south, both of which are linked to a local temperature rise of 3°C.
Elsewhere, the model projected some decreases in storm activity. Southwest France and the Iberian Peninsula, for example, may see fewer supercell thunderstorms in the future. However, the overall trend for Europe remains an 11% increase.
“These regional differences illustrate the diverse effects of climate change in Europe,” Feldmann explained.
Although supercell thunderstorms remain relatively rare, their destructive potential makes them a pressing concern. Beyond property damage and crop loss, they pose serious hazards to human life.
“The inclusion of supercell thunderstorms in weather risk assessments and disaster strategies is crucial,” Feldmann said. “Understanding the conditions that favor these storms is key to better preparedness.”
The paper, “European supercell Thunderstorms – A Prevalent Current Threat and an Increasing Future Hazard,” appeared in Science Advances on August 27, 2025.
Ryan Whalen covers science and technology for The Debrief. He holds an MA in History and a Master of Library and Information Science with a certificate in Data Science. He can be contacted at ryan@thedebrief.org, and follow him on Twitter @mdntwvlf.