As environmental concerns rise, so do scientists’ concerns about the future of the planet’s air quality; and according to a new study at the University of Waterloo, by the year 2100, nearly one in three Americans could be living under air quality levels that are considered unsafe.
“It is true that we are now headed in a catastrophic way, and it’s unavoidable,” 90-year-old Canadian academic, science broadcaster, and environmental activist, David Suzuki, recently told CBC News in an interview.
“The science has said, ‘We have passed a tipping point, we cannot go back,'” Suzuki said.
At the core of such concerns is the rise in smog-related pollution, particularly from May to September. The Waterloo-based study estimates that about 100 million people in the United States will live in areas where average air quality during this period regularly triggers health issues. This is a dramatic increase from the 14 million people noted in 2000, with the changes affecting California and the eastern United States.
Lead researcher Dr. Rebecca Saari warns that poor air quality could become far more common than previously thought. Unlike in the past, when air concerns were only a warning once in a while, they are now consistent and can significantly affect seniors, children with asthma, and people with chronic health conditions, leaving most to consider limiting outdoor exposure.
“Climate change could cause days with poor air quality to shift from rare to commonplace,” said Saari, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and the Canada Research Chair in Global Change, Atmosphere and Health at Waterloo, in a statement.
“People who are especially sensitive to air pollution, including the elderly, children with asthma, and those with health conditions, could face a daily coin flip, with nearly even odds of an alert every day asking them to change their behavior to reduce exposure,” she adds.
With a suggested year of 2100, the number of air quality alerts will quadruple, suggesting that most will need to stay indoors for an additional 142 days per year—potentially reducing the quality of life in regions affected by air quality.
The new study looks at both ozone and tiny particles in the air, which cause most air pollution warnings and can seriously harm health, including the lungs, heart, and even shorten life spans.
In the study, seniors were identified as being among the most deeply impacted, and were protected the most by staying indoors, using high-quality air filtration systems, and wearing masks on high-pollution days. However, depending on income and location, some of these tools may not be readily available, raising concerns about the growing financial and environmental inequality gaps that are occurring now, and will likely worsen in the future.
Beyond health risks, the economic costs associated with new infrastructure and the loss of productivity become major factors in an individual’s quality of life. The study also examines how policy could change these future outcomes, such as emissions reductions and improved urban planning, thereby mitigating some of these impacts over the next 75 years.
Overall, the study suggests that if we don’t adapt to reducing pollution and address climate change, the air people breathe could become a daily concern in the decades to come, rather than just an occasional warning.
Chrissy Newton is a PR professional and the founder of VOCAB Communications. She currently appears on The Discovery Channel and Max and hosts the Rebelliously Curious podcast, which can be found on YouTube and on all audio podcast streaming platforms. Follow her on X: @ChrissyNewton, Instagram: @BeingChrissyNewton, and chrissynewton.com. To contact Chrissy with a story, please email chrissy @ thedebrief.org.