It happened in an instant. As a commercial airliner descended toward a major U.S. airport in March 2025, the flight crew received a tense alert from air traffic control: illegal drone activity had been spotted in the area. Seconds later, a “relatively large,” silver drone burst into view—streaking just 20 feet past the aircraft’s left wing at 3,300 feet. The pilots had no time to react.
“The drone was about 4 to 5 feet in diameter,” the pilot later recounted. “The incident happened too quickly to take any evasive maneuvers.” The co-pilot described seeing the drone from the flight deck window at eye level, noting that it was “larger than a typical personal drone.”
This was far from an isolated encounter.
According to data reviewed by The Debrief, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) recorded 411 reports of illegal drone incursions near airports across the United States from January to March—an unsettling 25.6% increase from the 327 reports during the same period in 2024.
The figures obtained from the FAA and incident reports filed with the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reveal a troubling and potentially dangerous trend, highlighting the growing challenge that unauthorized drones pose to aviation safety.
Alarming Spike in Drone Incursions
For much of the last two years, the number of unauthorized drone incursions reported by commercial pilots, airport operators, and air traffic controllers remained relatively steady. According to the FAA, between Q1 2023 and Q1 2024, the increase was modest—just 4.8%—suggesting incremental growth aligned with the expanding popularity of consumer and commercial drones.
However, that sense of gradual growth was upended in late 2024, when a wave of “mystery drone” sightings in the skies over New Jersey and other parts of the Northeast drew national attention and intensified scrutiny of illegal drone incursions.
Multiple witnesses described the drones as flying in coordinated patterns—often at night and without identifiable markings—which triggered investigations by local authorities, the FAA, the FBI, and even the Department of Defense.
During the height of the mystery drone frenzy, both the Pentagon and the White House issued a series of conflicting and often perplexing statements, ultimately concluding that the sightings did not pose a “national security or public safety risk.” In January 2025, the incoming Trump administration sought to quell any remaining concern over the December incidents in New Jersey.
“After research and study, the drones that were flying over New Jersey in large numbers were authorized to be flown by the FAA for research and various other reasons,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Yet the FAA’s quarterly data and incident reports from NASA’s ASRS tell a far more troubling story—one of a sharp escalation in hazardous drone incursions across U.S. restricted airspace.
Multiple reports from the ASRS database from early 2025 describe near-midair collisions (NMACs) between drones and passenger jets, with drones appearing just feet away from cockpits or wing tips.
In a March incident over Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), a drone with a flashing red light passed within 50-100 feet of an inbound commercial airliner. No evasive action was taken, but the pilots filed an immediate report and notified air traffic control.
That same month, a black, roughly one-foot square drone reportedly passed within 5 to 7 feet of the front flight deck window of a commercial cargo plane descending into Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
In February, near Long Beach, California, the pilot of a small single-engine aircraft recounted a near-miss with a “bright red, multi-rotor drone” that “flashed past” the plane at an altitude of 3,500 feet.
“Had the drone intersected my flight path, it could have caused a catastrophic midair collision, with probable impact to control surfaces, propeller, engine, fuel tank, or canopy,” the pilot wrote in the ASRS report. “Had it impacted the canopy head-on, I would have been killed instantly.”
Most drone encounters reported to the FAA and NASA in the first quarter of 2025 involved standard commercial quadcopters or hobbyist drones. However, in several notable cases, pilots described more unusual sightings, including larger or more advanced unmanned aircraft, raising additional concerns about the nature and intent behind some of these incursions.
On January 4, 2025, a pilot reported seeing three unmanned aerial systems (UAS) flying in a “triangle formation” at an altitude of approximately 6,000 feet. According to the FAA report, the encounter occurred near Yardley, Pennsylvania, close to Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst—a U.S. military installation that experienced “multiple drone detections” during the wave of mysterious sightings in late 2024.
In February, roughly 13 nautical miles from Fort Worth, Texas, the pilot of a cargo aircraft reported a close encounter with a white, elongated drone that passed approximately 100 feet above the cockpit while the plane was flying at 15,500 feet. “It appeared to be not a small hobby drone, and it looked maybe 3 to 4 feet long,” the pilot wrote in an ASRS report.
On March 1, 2025, near Gillespie Field in El Cajon, California, the pilot of a Cessna 172 was forced to take evasive action to avoid a potential midair collision with a drone. Tower personnel confirmed sighting the UAV flying at 1,000 feet, approximately half a mile west of the airport.
In a strange turn of events, the FAA report indicates that the drone began trailing the Cessna, prompting authorities to suspend all air operations at Gillespie Field for more than 30 minutes. A San Diego County Sheriff’s Department helicopter was dispatched to investigate, but deputies could not locate the drone.
In at least one instance, the crew of an Air Ambulance helicopter unambiguously reported having a close encounter with an “unidentified flying object.”
“One of our helicopters was involved in a near miss with an Unidentified Flying Object,” a February 2025 ASRS report reads. “One of the crew saw an object directly in front of the windscreen and called to the pilot to take evasive action. The pilot banked hard to the left, and another crew member witnessed the object pass to the right of the fuselage and just below the main rotor disc. It was estimated that the object was less than 10′ from the aircraft.”
The report notes that the crew believed the object was either a drone or a balloon. However, because the pilot and medical team were operating with night vision goggles, they could not positively identify the object.
Geography of Drone Incursions
A closer look at the FAA’s sighting reports reveals some geographic shifts in incidents, highlighting urban airspaces as emerging hotspots for dangerous drone incursions.
In the first quarter of 2024, the top five cities for drone sightings included Atlanta (14), Miami (12), Houston (12), New York (11), and Chicago (10). However, these rankings shifted in early 2025.
Chicago more than doubled its previous tally, logging 29 unauthorized sightings in just the first quarter—more than any other U.S. city. Houston followed with 19, while New York and Orlando reported 18 incidents each. San Diego rounded out the top five with 14 reports.
At the state level, Florida is a hub of unauthorized drone activity, with 73 incidents reported in early 2025, up from 55 during the same period the previous year. California also saw a jump from 43 to 56 reports, while Texas increased from 35 to 40. Thanks to Chicago’s sudden uptick in reported sightings, Illinois emerged as a new hotspot with 31 sightings.
All leading states experienced double-digit percentage increases, suggesting a widespread and systemic rise in drone encounters rather than isolated spikes.
Orlando and San Diego—major tourist hubs with busy international airports—were absent from the top five in 2024 but saw significant jumps in 2025. Their emergence as hotspots may signal shifting trends in drone activity, potentially linked to tourism or a rise in urban drone operations.
However, it’s also noteworthy that San Diego is the principal homeport of the United States Pacific Fleet and home to several major military installations, including Naval Base San Diego, Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, and Naval Base Coronado. This significant military presence raises additional concerns about the risks posed by unauthorized drone flights in such a strategically sensitive area.
A geographic analysis of FAA data shows that the northeastern United States—where clusters of “mystery drone” sightings emerged in late 2024—continued to report high numbers of drone incursions into early 2025. Many of these incidents were concentrated near areas with a strong U.S. military presence, particularly around weapons manufacturing and storage facilities.
Unauthorized drone incursions near military bases are of particular concern, and an issue spotlighted during a recent U.S. House Oversight Committee hearing. Testimony revealed that unauthorized drone incursions over and around U.S. military installations were increasing and posed a significant threat to national security.
“These incursions are not from hobbyists being blown off course,” Chairman of the Oversight Subcommittee on Military and Foreign Affairs, Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.), said. “The multitude of drones reported flying over bases in the past several years to yield a coordinated effort by our adversaries to collect valuable intelligence and surveillance of some of our most sensitive military equipment.”
For several years, America’s European and NATO allies have been grappling with a surge of illegal drone activity near sensitive military installations and critical infrastructure. However, unlike their U.S. counterparts, European intelligence and defense officials have been more outspoken, openly suggesting that many of these incursions are likely part of a broad espionage or sabotage campaign orchestrated by Russia.
In a bold move this January, German lawmakers amended the country’s Aviation Security Act, granting the Luftwaffe the unprecedented authority to shoot down unidentified drones operating within German airspace.
In contrast, U.S. officials have been largely dismissive of the possibility that foreign adversaries are behind some of the drone incursions into American airspace.
However, during a May oversight hearing, Rear Admiral Paul Spedero Jr., Vice Director of Operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that America’s ability to detect, stop, or determine the intent behind unauthorized drone activity is severely limited.
“In general, the technology to field systems has far outpaced the technology to defeat those systems,” Spedero testified. “It’s a much wider, broader, deeper market for drone application—commercial and recreational—so that technology has evolved very quickly, from radio-controlled drones to fully autonomous systems that may not even rely on GPS, making them extremely difficult to intercept.”
In another example of inconsistent messaging by U.S. officials, Spedero testified that public awareness campaigns about safe drone operations had been effective in curbing illegal activity. “Once the word got out—public messaging about responsible drone use and flight restrictions—we saw a rapid decline in the number of sightings,” he said. “The drone activity essentially went away.”
It’s unclear whether Spedero was explicitly referring to drone flights near military installations. However, FAA data from the first quarter of 2025 tells a much different story. Reports of illegal and hazardous drone incursions near restricted civil airspace have surged dramatically, contradicting the notion that the problem has subsided.
A Problem Demanding Urgent Action
The sharp rise in drone incursions near airports, military installations, and urban airspaces in early 2025 reveals a growing threat that no longer fits within the bounds of recreational mishaps or isolated incidents.
Whether the culprits are careless hobbyists, criminals exploiting gaps in regulation, or foreign adversaries probing U.S. vulnerabilities, the risks to aviation safety and national security are no longer theoretical—they are immediate and escalating.
While awareness campaigns and modest regulatory efforts have shown some localized success, the broader trend suggests that the U.S. remains unprepared to address the complexity, scale, and evolving sophistication of the drone threat. Commercial drones are now cheaper, more autonomous, and more capable than ever—an innovation curve that has clearly outpaced America’s defensive measures.
The contrast between European responses—like Germany’s recent authorization for its military to shoot down unidentified drones—and the more cautious, often contradictory posture of U.S. agencies underscores a fundamental disconnect. As drone incursions multiply and near-misses become more common, the window for preventative action is closing.
Without a clear, coordinated federal response that includes improved detection systems, better interagency coordination, and updated legal frameworks, the United States risks remaining vulnerable to the scenarios its pilots and security officials are warning about. And if the FAA’s first-quarter data is any indication, the next close call might not end with just a report—it could end in tragedy.
“The FAA needs to get a hold on this, or we are going to have a catastrophic event happen to a commercial aircraft, not to mention the damage that would happen on the ground,“ a pilot wrote in an ASRS report following a near-miss with a large 4-foot drone during takeoff from Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.
“This worries me quite a bit,” the pilot said.
“I don’t see any urgency by the FAA to mitigate this issue.”
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: tim@thedebrief.org or through encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail.com