Antarctica’s vast ice sheet has revealed something few scientists would have expected: the slowly thawing continent appears to have gained mass over the past two years, in an apparent reversal of ice loss spanning several decades.
The discovery seemingly reverses years of concerning data that have accumulated about the southern continent, presenting fresh insights—and new challenges—for the study of Antarctica’s changing climate and how it can be protected amid ongoing climate concerns.
The research, led by Dr. Wei Wang and Prof. Yunzhong Shen at Tongji University, relied on satellite gravimetry data from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO missions, which revealed that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) accumulated mass between 2021 and 2023. The unexpected discovery represents the first significant mass gain detected in several years, following a steady decline in overall ice coverage.
The findings, which seemingly challenge earlier assumptions about uniform ice mass loss on the continent, appear to reveal that the recent ice accumulation was mostly driven by “anomalous precipitation accumulation” in East Antarctica’s glacier basins.
The findings were recently revealed by Science China Press, a state-run scientific journal publishing company of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).
Anomalies on the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Antarctica’s Ice Sheet has a significant relationship to global sea-level rise. Prior research has shown that long-term ice loss—particularly in West Antarctica and along the Antarctic Peninsula—has remained consistent.
Over the period spanning 2002 through 2010, scientists say Antarctica shed ice at an average rate of an astonishing -73.8 gigatons per year. However, that figure nearly doubled to –142.1 gigatons per year for the period between 2011 and 2020.
The acceleration of ice loss has remained a focal point for climate scientists in recent years, with the scientific community raising alarms about the region’s overall stability and its impact on rising seas. However, between 2021 and 2023, Wang, Shen, and their colleagues observed what appears to be a net gain of 107.8 gigatons per year—a dramatic reversal compared to concerning past observations.
The team attributes the unexpected reversal to unusually high precipitation over four major glaciers in the Wilkes Land–Queen Mary Land region: Totten, Moscow University, Denman, and Vincennes Bay.
“This accelerated mass loss in the Wilkes Land–Queen Mary Land region during the last decade was mainly driven by surface mass reduction and increased ice discharge,” the researchers say, pointing to surface mass loss that they say accounted for more than 70% of the decline, while ice discharge contributed 27.5%.
According to the recent NASA satellite data, while each of these glaciers had previously experienced accelerating ice loss until 2020, they now appear to have gained mass from precipitation that occurred over the last observation period. The new research also highlights that while the Antarctic Ice Sheet contributed to 0.20 mm of global sea-level rise annually from 2002 to 2010, and 0.39 mm per year between 2011 and 2020, a negative contribution was exerted between 2021 and 2023. The researchers say this value would effectively offset global sea-level rise by –0.30 mm annually.
Not a Challenge to Current Climate Concerns
While the recently observed mass gain in Antarctica’s ice is both surprising and hopeful after decades of concerning ice loss, climate scientists warn that the ice mass gain is temporary and that the longer-term outlook is still uncertain for Earth’s southernmost continent.
Predictably, some media coverage of the team’s findings appears to have catered to perceptions that the findings run counter to mainstream views on Earth’s changing climate. On the contrary, a more likely interpretation of the new data is that the “anomalous” precipitation, which contributed to overall ice accumulation during the most recent observation period, had itself likely resulted from ongoing climate changes.
“While progress has been made, we still have deep uncertainty about the future,” renowned glaciologist Eric Rignot at the University of California, Irvine, told CNN last September, adding that he remains concerned that portions of Antarctica are “already in a state of collapse.” Arguably, little about the new findings, which appeared in Science China Earth Sciences in March, will change such views among stalwart climate scientists who have watched concerning warming trends impacting the Antarctic Ice Sheet now for several decades.
A key aspect of the recent research is that the four glacier basins identified in the study are critical to Antarctic ice stability. Their potential collapse is estimated to trigger a rise of more than seven meters in the global sea level. The study’s authors argue that monitoring these glaciers closely will remain important since their vulnerability provides an important warning signal for serious climate risks.
“These glaciers are a critical warning signal for the future of Antarctica’s ice sheet,” the researchers say, emphasizing the need for sustained observation and international collaboration to understand and respond to ongoing changes.
The study, “Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land,” was published in Science China Earth Sciences.
Micah Hanks is the Editor-in-Chief and Co-Founder of The Debrief. He can be reached by email at micah@thedebrief.org. Follow his work at micahhanks.com and on X: @MicahHanks.