Claims of ‘Ghost Ships’ and ‘External Interference’ in Plane Crash Suggest Russian Involvement in Global Incidents

Micah Hanks·
Hybrid War
The Eagle 2 vessel seen in the Baltic (Credit: Finnish Police/Fair Use).

Welcome to this week’s yuletide edition of The Intelligence Brief… over the Christmas holiday, a pair of concerning incidents occurred that have sparked new worries over Russian involvement among international officials. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) the unusual circumstances involving a plane crash in Kazakhstan that has caused some experts to point the finger at Moscow, 2) the seizure of a vessel by Finnish officials amid investigations into a damaged power cable in the Baltic Sea, and 3) why many experts point to the potential operation of alleged “ghost ships” by Russia as part of a new modern effort involving “hybrid warfare.”

Quote of the Week

“While individually all these acts seem not to be important, when you bring them all together, they’re part of Russia’s hybrid war against the West.”

– Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Center for a New American Security

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New Concerns Arise Over Holiday Incidents Potentially Linked to Moscow

A concerning pair of incidents that occurred over the Christmas holiday have raised fresh concerns about potential Russian involvement in destabilizing global infrastructure and security.

The alarming events, including a passenger plane crash crashed near Aktau International Airport, Kazakhstan, and the severing of a critical undersea cable in the Baltic Sea, both occurred on Christmas Day.

Each of the incidents potentially point to shadowy tactics used by Moscow, which some experts attribute to “hybrid warfare” amid allegations of sabotage and covert operations that highlight the growing unease about Russia’s potential role in these disruptions, while international bodies like NATO call for accountability and readiness.

Airline Crash Sparks Allegations of ‘External Interference’

On Christmas Day, Azerbaijan Airlines reported that a passenger jet on its way to Kazakhstan had crashed, killing at least 38 of the 67 people aboard.

Kazakhstan’s transport ministry has confirmed that preliminary data on the crash indicates that among those on board were people from nations that include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. Survivors who spoke with the media following the incident said the plane began to fly erratically after a loud bang emanating from somewhere on the aircraft.

According to officials involved in the investigation of the incident, alleged “physical and technical external interference” the aircraft began to experience prior to landing has now sparked questions about Russia’s possible involvement, with eyewitness accounts and other data obtained from preliminary findings fueling such speculation.

One day after the incident, CNN reported that it was told of the likely involvement of a Russian anti-aircraft system which may have been used to bring down the plane. Additional reports cited shrapnel-like perforations found on portions of the wreckage, although no officials say no conclusions have been reached in the investigation.

Russia Responds

Responding to the allegations, on Friday Russian officials attributed the crash to Ukrainian drone activity which, paired with foggy conditions, forced the plane to divert from its original destination.

Dmitry Yadrov, chief of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, claimed that the crash resulted from “Ukrainian combat drones” that he said were “carrying out terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in the cities of Grozny and Vladikavkaz.” Moscow’s claims of drone involvement come amid a recent wave of drone sightings in various parts of the world, which since November have been observed in controlled airspace over several U.S. military facilities.

Pushing back on the claims, Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, charged that Russia took actions which forced the damaged plane to cross the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan. Sybiha characterized this, along with Russian media outlet who he says have “lied about the cause of the crash,” as possible evidence of a coverup.

Similar claims of Russian involvement were leveled this week by intelligence expert Justin Crump, who told the BBC that the theory of Russian air defense involvement “fits the facts,” though he deemed any such action unintentional.

“I don’t think this is deliberate at all,” Crump said, pointing out Russian air defense operations being undertaken around Grozny at the time as being possibly related to the incident. Imagery of the crash appear to show holes in the aircraft’s body that are suggestive of an impact made from possible debris or shrapnel, although the investigation remains underway and no conclusive determinations have been made.

Was a “Ghost Ship” Involved in Recent Baltic Cable Damage?

As investigations into the crash in Kazakhstan remained underway, on Thursday, Finnish authorities detained a sailing vessel suspected of being involved in damagin the undersea Estlink-2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia.

The break, which disrupted four additional telecom cables, has been characterized as being part of a potential hybrid attack targeting Baltic infrastructure that occurred on Christmas day.

The ship, which has been named as ‘Eagle S’, is owned by Caravella, a United Arab Emirates-based sailing vessel company. However, Finland has now officially launched an investigation into whether the ship, which has known links to Russia, was involved in breaking the cable earlier this week.

Several organizations, including NATO, have characterized the incident as one of several incidents associated with “suspected attacks on critical infrastructure,” some of which have been carried out by part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which involves ships which reportedly operate with obscure ownership, and often carries Russian fuel to escape sanctions.

Speaking with reporters this week, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said these shadow vessels are conducting operations aimed at “helping Russia to earn funds that will aid Russian hybrid attacks.”

With NATO’s backing, Finnish and Estonian officials have launched investigations into the damage to the cable, which will likely take up to seven months to repair.

The Broader Picture of Hybrid Warfare

Such incidents—particularly the events involving the damaged Baltic cable—are part of what many experts refer to as “hybrid warfare,” which denotes a blend of conventional and unconventional tactics that extend beyond Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine, which are designed to destabilize, but without provoking full-scale conflict.

Other examples include cyberattacks, election interference, and the sabotage of critical systems like pipelines and communication networks.

In recent months, the Baltic region has seen repeated instances of undersea cable disruptions, including incidents last month where cables between Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden were damaged. Many officials have increasingly suspected sabotage in the incidents, with Moscow frequently at the center of such allegations, although evidence remains inconclusive in many cases.

Amid a growing number of similar incidents, NATO has underscored the importance of protecting member nations under Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.

Although Estonia has been a member of NATO now for two decades, Finland also joined last year as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.

As investigations into such incidents continue, international bodies like NATO and the EU have condemned Moscow’s actions, highlighting the need for increased vigilance and protection of global security systems.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or Tweet at me @MicahHanks.

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