Trump’s New World Order Leaves Future of European Security in Question

Micah Hanks·

New World Order

Welcome to this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief… officials in European countries have expressed alarm recently amid a significant shift in U.S. policy regarding the war in Ukraine. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) President Donald Trump’s pivot on U.S. policy toward Ukraine, 2) why Moscow welcomes the U.S.’s shift in attitude toward Russia’s war with Ukraine, 3) where current peace talks have gone, and what they left out, and 4) how the sudden U.S. shift in policy under Donald Trump’s “New World Order” impacts European security.

Quote of the Week

“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

– U.S. President Donald Trump

RECENT NEWS from The Debrief

Trump’s Ukraine Policy Shift Stuns European Allies, Emboldens Russia

In a stunning reversal on U.S. support for Ukraine, President Donald Trump raised concerns among European allies once again this week with policy shifts that drew praise from Moscow while signaling an uncertain future for European security.

Speaking on Tuesday, the U.S. President seemed to imply that Ukraine had been an instigator in its ongoing conflict with Russia, saying Ukraine “should have never started” the current war. The remarks were made amid recent unrest following the U.S. administration’s decision to exclude Kyiv from peace talks between the U.S. and Russia.

As Trump and his team push for a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict, critics have warned that the administration’s stances align closely with Kremlin narratives, raising concerns about the long-term stability of the region.

The startling shift in U.S. policy, which Alberto Nardelli, writing for Bloomberg, called an “abrupt overthrow of transatlantic guarantees in place since 1945” that leaves “the future security of the continent at stake,” has been widely criticized, with many characterizing events of recent days as the dawn of a “New World Order.”

Russia Celebrates, Ukraine Condemns

In further rhetoric that appears to mirror pro-Kremlin talking points, Trump characterized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator without elections” this week.

Although it is true that Ukrainian elections are currently suspended, this came into effect in February 2022 at the time Russia—not Ukraine—began the war by launching its full-scale invasion of the country. The  suspension of Ukrainian elections resulted from a declaration of martial law shortly after Russia invaded, and based on martial laws that had been drafted in 2015, years before Zelenskyy took office and only a short time after the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia the previous year.

Naturally, the U.S. president’s remarks were welcomed by Moscow, where it has been reported top officials, including former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, praised Trump’s apparent “understanding” of the Kremlin’s views on the war.

Ukrainian officials, by contrast, have vehemently rejected Trump’s assertions. Zelenskyy warned that any peace agreement made without Ukraine’s involvement will be viewed by his country as illegitimate, reiterating Ukraine’s refusal to accept territorial concessions to Russia.

Peace Talks Signal a Startling Shift in U.S. Policy

On Tuesday, an initial meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia agreed to engage in further talks aiming to end the war in Ukraine. The meeting, at which no representatives from Kyiv were present, reportedly lasted more than four hours.

The peace talks were initiated during a recent call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that blindsided Ukraine and its allies, who warned that the talks could bypass Ukrainian leadership and cement Russian territorial gains.

Further signaling a potential break from past commitments, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also ruled out Ukrainian NATO membership and American military involvement last week in remarks that drew criticism among U.S. officials for seemingly reinforcing perceptions that the U.S. is pivoting from its traditional role in European security.

U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, a Republican from Mississippi and fervent supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia said last week that Hegseth “is going to be a great defense secretary,” but added that “he made a rookie mistake in Brussels and he’s walked back some of what he said but not that line.” Wicker, who currently serves as chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, also said Hegseth hadn’t been his first pick for the job.

The Trump team’s pivot represents a stark departure from the bipartisan consensus that previously guided U.S. policy on Ukraine. During the Biden administration, Congress allocated billions in military aid to support Ukraine’s defense, but that commitment appears to be fading with Trump in office. Even former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley criticized Trump’s approach, calling his remarks “classic Russian talking points.”

The Future of European Security

Given the striking shakeup in U.S. policy signaled by the U.S. administration, President Trump’s pursuit of peace talks with Russia has left European leaders scrambling and uncertain about how the current shifts in geopolitical dynamics could shape the future of not only Ukraine but Europe more broadly.

Fundamentally, President Donald Trump’s administration is rapidly altering the geopolitical landscape, upending established norms with a devil-may-care foreign policy approach that sidelines longstanding alliances and sets a new—and uncertain—pace for America’s influence on world affairs.

The recent engagement by the Trump administration with Russia followed just days after the U.S. president suggested relocating Palestinians from Gaza, criticized European allies for rejecting far-right political parties, and, on the domestic front, halted foreign aid while threatening trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico, all mark a significant departure from rules observed since the end of the Second World War which acknowledge and respect the sovereignty of nations and cooperation through alliances.

As Washington pushes for an aspired resolution to the conflict in Ukraine by Easter, experts warn that the window for U.S. diplomacy is rapidly closing. Questions loom over the potential outcome of the current negotiations and whether Ukraine will have a seat at the table amid future peace talks.

While it remains unclear where the shifting global dynamics may lead, one thing does seem clear: America’s position toward the war in Ukraine has fundamentally transformed, and with it, the way the rest of the world views the United States on the geopolitical stage.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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