Welcome to this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief… on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke over the telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a pair of conversations that have set off alarm bells across Europe. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how yesterday’s discussions, framed by Trump as steps toward peace, have raised concerns among European nations, 2) why Moscow welcomed the new U.S. administration’s approach, 3) concerns that Ukraine could be sidelined in any potential negotiations, and 4) how U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has signaled a shift in Washington’s approach, urging European allies to take on more of the burden for regional security themselves.
Quote of the Week
“I think we’re on the way to getting peace. I think President Putin wants peace, President Zelenskyy wants peace and I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed.”
– U.S. President Donald Trump
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Trump-Putin Call Sparks Diplomatic Tensions as Ukraine, Europe Push Back
On Wednesday, Donald Trump’s separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ignited diplomatic controversy, with both foreign leaders expressing their desire for peace, the U.S. President said.
Trump referred to his call with Putin as “lengthy and highly productive,” later posting on his Truth Social platform that he and the Russian leader had “agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately.” Trump later wrote that his subsequent call with Zelenskyy “went very well,” adding, “He, like President Putin, wants to make PEACE.”
However, European leaders have since voiced alarm over the apparent entry into peace talks amid concerns over the potential sidelining of Ukraine and NATO in the negotiation process. Fundamentally, Trump’s call with Putin marks a pivotal moment for transatlantic relations, raising new questions about the U.S. and its future commitment to European security, as well as its coordination with NATO allies.
Moscow Welcomes Trump’s Approach
Russian officials responded favorably to Wednesday’s call between Trump and Putin, which reportedly lasted more than an hour. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Trump’s stance “much more appealing” than previous U.S. administrations.
Similarly, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s National Security Council, hailed the call as historically significant. “The presidents of Russia and the U.S. have talked at last,” Medvedev said of Wednesday’s call. “This is very important in and of itself.”
Russian state-backed media outlets were more explicit in how they characterized Wednesday’s phone call, with RIA Novosti declaring that Trump had “finally hurt Zelenskyy for real.”
Similarly, Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, said Trump’s call with the Russian President had “signed Zelenskyy’s death sentence,” underscoring the view resounding currently in propagandistic Russian media coverage that Trump’s approach weakens Ukraine’s position and reinforces Moscow’s diplomatic standing—views that, if not stated explicitly, are nonetheless shared by Russian leadership.
Zelenskyy Rejects Exclusion from Peace Talks
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy quickly dismissed any negotiation framework that excluded direct involvement from Ukraine. Speaking from a nuclear power plant in the western portion of his country, Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine “will not accept” agreements made without Kyiv’s input.
Although Zelenskyy was reportedly irked that Trump called Putin on Wednesday before he called the Ukrainian leader, Zelenskyy sought to reassure allies after his own call with Trump that the U.S. president had not explicitly prioritized Putin in their discussion, but warned against allowing “everything to go according to Putin’s plan.”
“We cannot accept it, as an independent country, any agreements (made) without us,” Zelenksy said yesterday. “I articulate this very clearly to our partners. Any bilateral negotiations about Ukraine, not on other topics, but any bilateral talks about Ukraine without us, we will not accept.” Zelenskyy also emphasized that continued American support is crucial for Ukraine’s security.
European Leaders Voice Alarm Amid Shifting U.S. Policy and NATO Implications
Going beyond Ukraine and Russia, the U.S. President’s openness toward engagement with Moscow stoked alarm among leaders of Poland, Estonia, and other NATO members, some of whom expressed deep concerns over Washington’s present course, emphasizing the need for a unified approach.
“Just as Putin has no intention of stopping hostilities even during potential talks, we must maintain Western unity and increase support … to Ukraine, and political and economic pressure on Russia,” Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s Foreign Minister, said following Wednesday’s series of phone calls.
“Our actions must show that we are not changing course,” Tsakkna added, echoing similar statements from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted on social media yesterday.
“Ukraine, Europe and the United States should work on this together. TOGETHER,” Tusk wrote.
Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt likened the situation to the 1938 Munich Agreement, warning that the situation was reminiscent of “two big leaders wanting to have peace in our time, (over) a faraway country of which they know little. They are preparing to make a deal over the heads of that particular country.”
“A lot of Europeans know how that particular movie ended,” Bildt said.
A Significant Shift in U.S. Policy
Trump’s choice to prioritize discussions with Moscow represents a notable departure from past U.S. policy. The Trump administration’s direct engagement with a major power like Russia signals a step away from past U.S. strategy that emphasized multilateral cooperation, a move that could mark a potential recalibration of global alliances more broadly.
The U.S. President’s call with Putin taking center-stage as the icebreaker in this new diplomatic effort also places Russia at the center of any prospective resolution, conditions which, although viewed as favorable by Moscow, have raised concerns that a peace deal could be brokered without full participation from Ukraine. The result could, in effect, potentially legitimize Russia’s territorial claims.
At a Wednesday meeting of countries supporting Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth characterized any hope for returning Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders as “an unrealistic objective” and warned against “illusionary” goals while working toward a peace deal between the countries.
During the meeting—the new Defense Secretary’s first with Ukrainian defense officials and members of NATO—Hegseth said the war would be ended “by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table.” Hegseth also ruled out the prospect of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO while urging European allies to take greater responsibility for their own security and calling for NATO members to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of their GDP.
Hegseth assured the meeting attendees that Washington “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe. Full stop.” However, he added that “the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”
As diplomatic maneuvering continues, the next steps in U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain uncertain. Trump’s envoy is scheduled to visit Ukraine in the coming weeks, while Vice President JD Vance is set to attend the Munich Security Conference, where Zelenskyy is expected to make his case for continued Western support.
Speaking with ITV News over the weekend, Zelenskyy told the UK outlet that he “would be ready for any format for talks,” but only so long as there is “an understanding that America and Europe will not abandon us and they will support us and provide security guarantees.”
That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.
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