What’s Really Going On With All the “Mystery Drone” Incidents Over U.S. Bases?

Micah Hanks·

mystery drone

Welcome to this special Black Friday installment of The Intelligence Brief… in recent days, sightings of “mystery drones” have been back in the news, following a concerning series of incidents reported over U.S. military bases in the United Kingdom. For all of our readers who stayed home to enjoy Thanksgiving leftovers instead of braving the Black Friday crowds (as well as those waiting in long lines while out shopping), this week we’ll be taking a look at 1) the latest mystery drone incursions over U.S. facilities, 2) what the USAF has said about the drone sightings, in Great Britain, 3) how these incidents became a recent media sensation, 4) the relationship (and lack thereof) between mystery drone incidents and the Pentagon’s UAP investigations, and 5) what most are missing about the recent drone incidents, and why they are legitimately concerning.

Quote of the Week

“It is illegal for drones to be flown near or within the vicinity of these military sites, and people should be aware of that.”

– Lord Coaker, Minister of State, U.K. Ministry of Defence

RECENT NEWS from The Debrief

Drone Incursions Over U.S. Sites Are On the Rise

A recent spate of drone incursions into airspace over U.S. bases remains unresolved, according to U.S. officials investigating the ongoing incidents.

The ongoing drone sightings, which have occurred over American military sites and, most recently, over U.S. military facilities in the United Kingdom, have received widespread attention in the media, as officials have indicated that it is presently unclear who is operating the drones, and whether they indicate potentially hostile actions by unknown actors.

While much about these incidents remains unclear, at least a few things can be confirmed right now, including what factors may be contributing to the sudden rise in interest they have received from the media in recent weeks.

UAVs Over U.S. Bases in Britain

Several days ago, U.S. defense news site The Warzone first reported a series of drone sightings occurring over airbases in Britain, beginning with what was characterized as a multi-drone incursion over RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, England. In the days that followed, several more incursions reportedly occurred at RAF Mildenhall, also in Suffolk, and RAF Feltwell in Norfolk.

Subsequently, it was confirmed that similar sightings of small, unidentified unmanned aerial systems had also taken place at RAF Fairford.

“To date, installation leaders have determined that none of the incursions impacted base residents, facilities or assets,” read a statement released by the U.S. Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa Public Affairs office. “The Air Force is taking all appropriate measures to safeguard the aforementioned installations and their residents.”

mystery drone

The statement said the number of drones and their size and configurations had varied across the incidents, all of which reportedly occurred since November 20th. “Our units continue to monitor the airspace and are working with host-nation authorities and mission partners to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities and assets,” the statement read.

The USAF declined to comment on whether protective measures were taken during the incidents, while noting that such activity may be deemed appropriate if any indications of threats from the objects were detected.

“We request individuals in the area to contact either local police or Security Forces if they see anything suspicious, to include [small unmanned aerial systems] or drone activity,” the statement added.

How Drone Sightings Became a Media Sensation

Although the USAF has advised the public to report sightings of suspicious drone activity to authorities, the incidents also frequently make the headlines. This can occur in various ways, including initial reporting about the incidents being posted on various online forums maintained by aviation enthusiasts or other interest groups, which sometimes prompts deeper investigation and eventual reporting by news outlets.

In the case of the recent drone sightings, the incidents over bases in the U.K., as well as sightings of drones over Langley Air Force Base that eventually came to the attention of lawmakers, were first reported by The Warzone, a respected news site which, amid the range of the defense reporting they feature, has frequently covered incidents involving unidentified unmanned aerial systems over the last few years.

In the case of the Langley drone incidents, a story that reached critical mass back in October following a feature that appeared in The Wall Street Journal, news about these concerning incursions had already been receiving significant attention at The Warzone as early as March of this year, just three months after the incidents occurred last December.

This pattern is nothing new, as it’s quite common for significant news stories to initially be reported by niche news sites, only to be picked up days, weeks, or sometimes even months later (as in the case of the Langley drones) by larger traditional mainstream publications. However, reports involving “mystery drones” are a particularly unique topic in this regard, especially when viewed in terms of the subject’s relationship to public interest in sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena.

“Mystery Drones” and UAP: Confusion Between Two Mysteries

Once the story of the Langley drone incidents began receiving significant media attention, it was no surprise that some began to associate the sightings with what the Pentagon now calls unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), traditionally known more simply as UFOs.

Such suspicions have proliferated on social media and various news sites in recent weeks, where a few commentators have questioned whether the “drones” seen over military bases like Langley and U.S. bases overseas may have actually been UAPs. However, during a recent hearing held by the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, the sightings over Langley were explicitly characterized as having been related to the operation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) by unknown parties.

Speaking before lawmakers, Dr. Jon Kosloski, Director of the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), acknowledged the distinction between the manmade drones observed over Langley, and the types of anomalous objects his office is investigating. Kosloski also conceded that technologies AARO is developing for its UAP investigations may have applications that could help detect and ultimately resolve some of the worrisome drone incidents occurring over U.S. facilities.

“As AARO is trying to push the bounds on detectability for UAP, we’re hopefully going to have best practices that we can also provide to the counter-UAS [efforts],” Kosloski said during the Senate hearing, adding that “potentially we might have additional technologies that we can offer them to support.”

Make No Mistake, “Mystery Drone” Incidents are a Real Concern

Among the fundamental realities regarding the ongoing “mystery drone” incidents is the likelihood that they may have occurred more frequently than many are aware.

In the past, The Debrief has reported on the likelihood that similar sightings of “mystery drones” over Swedish government facilities and other sensitive areas in early 2022 had likely involved activities linked to Russia. Among the range of possibilities regarding the more recent drone incursions—particularly those occurring in Europe—this scenario should again be recognized as both potentially likely and fundamentally concerning.

The serious implications of such incursions and their frequency merit serious attention. However, once stories like these emerge and are slowly picked up by various outlets and re-reported (often with the inclusion of sensational add-ons and unfounded speculation that helps to play up the apparent mystery surrounding them), crucial details and other nuances of the situation tend to be lost.

“Beware of garbage takes on the drone incursions,” wrote Tyler Rogoway, editor-in-chief at The Warzone, in a thread posted on his X account, where he noted how he and other writers have spent “many years building this case piece by piece when few else would touch it let alone actually work to understand it.”

“Now everyone has the goods,” Rogoway said, adding that the “Vast majority have no clue what they are saying. Just the new hot topic to latch onto. It’s the way it is in the modern info space. But be warned on this very complex and nuanced topic,” he added, referring to those who cover the story as “topic tourists” who he says will “take years of work by others and present it as their own takes.”

Of course, the same could be said of many subjects, the nuances of which are all too often left out of the quick-hit reporting that appears all over the web, which primarily aims for clicks over quality; a reality of the modern media landscape that does little to help contextualize the complex underpinnings of situations like America’s ongoing drone incursions.

Altogether, while the origins of these drones and the identity of their operators remain mysterious, there are at least a few things that are no mystery about these incidents: 1) according to statements from U.S. officials, all indications point to these objects being recognized, manmade UAVs (and not anomalies) 2) it’s possible that the drones in some of the incidents may be attributable to foreign actors (like Russia), although this has yet to be explicitly confirmed by officials, and 3) while questions about the drone incidents remain, many media outlets prefer to play up their mystery, while offering very little in the way of context or depth of reporting to help appropriately frame them in such a way.

“It’s the never ending desperate clamor for content,” Rogoway assessed of the situation in his thread on X, emphasizing that the drone incursions are a topic that “is extremely complex and full of nuance, historical info and technical aspects,” most of which become trampled underfoot by today’s standard style of drive-by reporting.

“It is what it is,” Rogoway wrote.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or Tweet at me @MicahHanks.

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