Conflict in the Final Frontier: The U.S. and China are Preparing for a New Era of Warfare in Space

Micah Hanks·
war in space
(Image: U.S. Air Force photo by Andy Morataya)

Welcome to this edition of The Intelligence Brief... This week, the United States, China, and other world powers are developing increasingly sophisticated military capabilities in space, raising concerns that Earth’s orbit could become a critical battlefield in future conflicts. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how China’s secretive Shenlong spaceplane and recent orbital maneuvers reveal Beijing’s growing counterspace capabilities, 2) how the U.S. and its allies are responding as spacecraft increasingly demonstrate “dogfighting,” rendezvous, and other potentially military operations, 3) why Russia’s longstanding pursuit of anti-satellite weapons—including potentially nuclear-armed orbital systems—adds another dimension to the emerging threat, and 4) how growing military dependence on satellites could create dangerous new vulnerabilities and pathways for escalation between nuclear-armed powers.

Quote of the Week

“We must be well-prepared for conflict in space. And if deterrence fails, we will fight and win.”

– US Space Command chief General Stephen Whiting

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RECENT NEWS from The Debrief

U.S. and China Are Preparing for a New Kind of Warfare in Space

Military competition between the U.S. and China is ramping up, according to new developments that showcase how both nations are developing maneuverable spacecraft, counterspace weapons, and other technologies with the potential to shape the orbital battlefield of tomorrow.

The developments, first reported by Reuters, involve the revelation that China’s secretive uncrewed spaceplane had released a small satellite in orbit earlier this year, activity which was detected and analyzed by LeoLabs. According to the company’s analysis, the object released by the Chinese spaceplane was reportedly observed maneuvering around another Chinese satellite before returning to the spaceplane.

Launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the vast Gobi Desert, China’s spaceplane, known as Shenlong—a name meaning “Divine Dragon”—took flight on its current mission in February. With the new confirmation of an orbital test based on LeoLabs data, the recent developments offer a clear demonstration of the increasingly sophisticated operations China is capable of conducting in orbit.

The U.S. and China’s “Arms Race” for Space

Of course, the United States also has its own secretive reusable spaceplane—the Boeing X-37B—and similarities between the two spacecraft have drawn notable comparisons in the past. Although much about its missions remains undisclosed, the X-37B serves as an orbital test platform for experimental technologies, while the U.S. Space Force is developing both defensive and offensive capabilities intended to protect American interests in space and counter potential adversaries.

“The Chinese are rapidly developing capabilities,” including ground- and space-based weapons designed to interfere with or destroy targets, U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said in July, describing the threat as “substantial.”

Examples of what U.S. officials have characterized as orbital “dogfighting” have already been demonstrated by China, which includes incidents where multiple spacecraft reportedly maneuvered in close proximity, along with the apparent capture and relocation of defunct satellites. Orbital refueling capabilities are also believed to be in development that could significantly extend the operational lives of such spacecraft and their related orbital technologies.

In response to the Chinese demonstrations, the U.S. and other nations have engaged in similar efforts, which include an American military satellite that maneuvered near a British spacecraft last September as China’s Shiyan 12-01 experimental satellite passed roughly 83 kilometers below, an operation several experts interpreted as a demonstration of allied capabilities.

While such technologies also have legitimate civilian applications in many cases, the potential for their military use is becoming harder to ignore, and U.S. officials have warned that adversaries could attempt to target American space systems early in a future conflict—and China is by no means the only foreign adversary nation engaged in the development of such technologies.

Warfare in Earth’s Orbit

In August, a research article funded by the Russia Strategic Initiative, U.S. European Command, examined Russia’s pursuit of anti-satellite weapons, which have deep roots in Soviet nuclear strategy. Such decades-old efforts focused on disabling U.S. satellites, which were viewed as a potential means of disrupting early warning, communications, and command-and-control systems during a major conflict.

Today, such Cold War-era concerns have resurfaced, as Russian military thinking has expanded to include more destructive counterspace capabilities, which may include nuclear-armed orbital systems designed to disable large numbers of satellites at once. This raises the prospect that Moscow could attempt to effectively take low-Earth orbit offline should a major conflict occur, thereby disabling critical communications systems relied on by the U.S. and other nations.

Concerns over such capabilities apparently aren’t mere speculation. In 2024, the Pentagon revealed that Russia had launched a satellite it assessed was likely a counter-space weapon, believed to be capable of attacking and disabling other satellites in low-Earth orbit.

Space Warfare and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape

The broader challenge facing the United States and its allies is that space has become indispensable to modern warfare, while also simultaneously becoming increasingly vulnerable to attack.

Western militaries are heavily reliant on satellites for communications systems, as well as GPS navigation, missile warning, precision targeting, intelligence gathering, and a range of other capabilities. Equally problematic is that many civilian and commercial systems rely on the same orbital infrastructure.

Right now, Russia and China are believed to be developing counterspace capabilities ranging from electronic jamming, cyberattacks, and directed-energy systems to anti-satellite missiles and maneuverable spacecraft capable of approaching other satellites.

Fundamentally, this creates a difficult issue in terms of deterrence, since an adversary might disrupt a critical satellite without physically destroying it, making attribution and determining an appropriate military response far more complicated than simply responding to a conventional attack. Further, the ongoing integration of commercial systems with military operations may increase the likelihood of attacks that could target non-military targets.

Altogether, the emerging picture is more than just one involving whether the next major war could extend into Earth’s orbit: it is a question of how, and to what extent, future attacks on spacecraft by adversary nations could affect events back on Earth, and what the longer-term implications could be for communications, navigation, and other capabilities upon which civilians increasingly rely—all while creating new pathways for escalation between nuclear-armed world powers.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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