Experts Warn of Suspicious Trading Around Iran War and Global Events as Alarming Pattern Emerges

Micah Hanks·
suspicious trading
(Image Credit: Unsplash)

Welcome to this edition of The Intelligence Brief… This week, a growing wave of suspicious trading activity tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict has raised concerns among experts about the potential misuse of insider knowledge in both prediction markets and traditional financial systems. In our analysis, we’ll be looking at 1) how clusters of newly created accounts on platforms like Polymarket placed well-timed bets on a potential ceasefire that could yield significant profits, 2) the broader pattern of unusual trades—including spikes in oil futures and prior bets linked to major geopolitical decisions—that suggest a possible “epidemic” of coordinated or informed activity, 3) how companies and regulators are responding amid mounting scrutiny over transparency and market integrity, and 4) why the expanding role of prediction markets in global events may blur the line between informed speculation and illicit use of non-public information.

Quote of the Week

“Markets thrive on clarity.”

– Neal Kumar, Chief Legal Officer of Polymarket.

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RECENT NEWS from The Debrief

Insider Trading Concerns Arise Amid Suspicious Bets Related to Iran Conflict

This week, an apparent series of well-timed trades has experts concerned about insider trading, prompting market observers to question the unusual activity.

The controversy focuses on several Polymarket accounts, which appear to have placed bets on an anticipated ceasefire amid the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran, which some experts have pointed to as clear signs of insider knowledge.

According to The Guardian, eight of the accounts suspected of engaging in suspicious trading had been created on or around March 21, totaling close to $70,000 USD in bets on the likelihood of a ceasefire. If such a deal is reached before the end of the month, the profit yield from these bets could exceed $800,000.

Some of the accounts linked to suspected insider knowledge were created earlier, with one created on February 28—a date that marked the beginning of the U.S. campaign in Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” However, much of the suspicious betting activity occurred from accounts created within the last week, coinciding with shifts in President Trump’s attitudes as indicated in posts on his Truth Social website.

Profit from Knowledge

Polymarket describes itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” which allows users to observe market trends, as well as to “profit from your knowledge by trading on future events across various topics.”

Prediction markets such as Polymarket, and a few others like Kalshi, allow users to wager on the outcomes of political, economic, and global events. While their popularity has surged in recent years, they have also drawn criticism from lawmakers and regulators concerned about transparency, potential market manipulation, and the risk of illicit trading based on non-public information.

According to CBS News, the company said on Monday that it has now updated its rules to curb trades based on what it characterized as “stolen confidential information,” tips obtained unlawfully, or trading by those who hold “a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event.”

Neal Kumar, Chief Legal Officer of Polymarket, said in a statement issued this week that the company’s updated rules “make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built.”

Patterns Point to Strategies

Among the concerning behaviors analysts have noted, several accounts involved in the suspicious activity, in addition to being created within a narrow timeframe, also appeared to employ similar trading strategies.

Experts said the timing and overall structure of the suspicious betting appeared to show well-recognized signs of insider trading or similar “coordinated” investment activities.

However, going beyond just recent trading on Polymarket, Axios recently reported on what it characterized as a broader “epidemic” of suspicious trading activity that has surged in recent months, which included a sudden spike in oil futures experts noticed on Monday for which there was no apparent public explanation, while noting that it occurred “roughly 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants.”

Going back to the Friday before the launch of Operation Epic Fury, an “unusual surge” involving more than 150 Polymarket accounts that placed bets on an imminent U.S. strike on Iran was also reported by The New York Times.

In early January, records indicate one trader on Polymarket had made close to $400,000 in a bet on the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro—all before the official announcement was made by the Trump administration the following morning.

Some evidence of recent suspicious trading activity apparently goes all the way back to last spring, according to some experts who similarly point to a surge in trades that occurred before President Trump’s announcement that a 90-day pause would be placed on “Liberation Day” tariffs—some of which occurred just minutes before the official announcement was made.

Unanswered Questions

Currently, it remains unclear who made the unusual trades, although in some instances, regulators and clearing institutions can trace account activity, particularly when it is suspected of unlawful trading.

Regulatory agencies have made a few comments for the time being, although a few experts have suggested that at least some of the activity might be explainable. Writing for The New York Post, Charles Gasparino noted that so-called “mosaic” analyses, which might involve information gleaned from publicly available sources paired with insights from obscure sources, including information provided by news outlets, could feasibly explain some of the activity.

For the time being, questions remain about the implications of such activity, especially as prediction platforms that allow users to profit from their knowledge continue to expand and intersect with global events. Overall, the current line between informed speculation and potential misuse of non-public information is likely to come under increasing scrutiny.

That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or reach me on X: @MicahHanks.

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