Welcome to this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief… in the aftermath of a contentious U.S. election, many around the world are now wondering how the incoming administration’s policies will shape U.S. national defense and global issues going forward. With a focus on the possible defense and foreign policy implications, our analysis this week will look at 1) how the Pentagon could change under the new administration, 2) what the U.S. election results could mean for NATO, and 3) the international response to Donald Trump’s return to office, and it’s potential global ramifications.
Quote of the Week
“The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”
— Thomas Jefferson
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Podcasts: In podcasts this week, on the latest installment of The Debrief Weekly Report, Kenna and Stephanie root around the swamp looking for mysterious “Swamp Dweller” fossils. Meanwhile on The Micah Hanks Program, I take a look at what it really takes to bring an empire to ashes with a historical deep dive into the rise and fall of ‘lost’ civilizations. You can find all our past episodes on The Debrief’s Podcasts Page.
Video News: On the latest episode of Rebelliously Curious, Chrissy Newton takes a critical look at the rise of misinformation, manipulation, and cult-like followings in UFO culture. Be sure to check out other great content from The Debrief on our official YouTube Channel.
With that all behind us, it’s time now to get an international perspective on how the next four years could look, and what that may mean both for the U.S. military and our allies around the world.
Trump’s Plans to Overhaul the Pentagon
This week, another contentious U.S. election concluded on Tuesday with Donald Trump, who previously served as the 45th President of the United States, now poised to return to office as the nation’s 47th leader.
Among defense experts, Trump’s return to the White House is expected to represent a sweeping overhaul of the Pentagon, where many defense initiatives of the past administration are expected to be reversed. Overall, it is expected that Trump’s approach toward the military upon his return to office next January will foment debate over the use of the armed forces both at home and abroad.
Among the changes the incoming president is expected to institute, Trump will likely push to move the U.S. Space Command to Alabama. During his first term in office, it was announced that the Pentagon planned to move it to Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama, although it was later decided by President Joe Biden for it to remain in Colorado. Additionally, Trump has said he intends to create a Space National Guard that would offer part-time personnel for the U.S. Space Force, the newest branch of the American military which came to fruition under Trump’s first term.
However, Trump’s focus on space-related military issues, which helped garner support from SpaceX founder Elon Musk during his election bid, are not the only military policies he is expected to push for. Trump is also likely to reignite debates over military base names, in addition to targeting a military abortion travel policy enacted by the current administration, and also potentially reintroduce a ban on transgender individuals serving openly in the military.
NATO and the U.S. Under the New Administration
Significant changes may also be on the horizon for NATO following the recent U.S. election, although despite Trump’s past criticisms of the alliance, some experts say it seems unlikely that the U.S. will be withdrawn altogether. Instead, a shift in the operations of the alliance is expected, where Trump is expected to rebalance the defense spending currently in order among member states.
Another proposal that is expected—and a controversial one—involves the creation of a two-tier NATO system, under which failures to meet spending targets by member nations would mean that they do not receive the same level of security guarantees from the United States as those which do. However, critics of the plan say that such a policy would undermine the collective defense principles outlined within the NATO treaty.
Additionally, Trump is expected to revisit past attempts to withdraw U.S. troops from parts of Europe, potentially with the intent of using it to leverage more significant financial demands from NATO allies.
A significant component of the new administration’s approach with NATO involves the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trump has expressed his desire to see the conflict resolved quickly, an effort that may include negotiations over NATO’s eastward expansion and territorial concessions with Moscow, measures which have led to unrest among the U.S.’s European allies. Fundamentally, concerns remain that a weakened U.S. role in NATO could destabilize the alliance and leave Ukraine, and all of Europe, more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
World Leaders Respond to Trump’s Reelection
With such issues potentially on the table as Trump returns to office next year, in the days immediately following the U.S. election, mixed reactions have been seen from world leaders that range from supportive to concerned.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump’s victory a historic moment, emphasizing his belief in the renewed strength of the U.S.-Israel alliance over a “warm and cordial” phone call to Trump shortly after his victory had been announced.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy similarly offered congratulations, although emphasizing his hopes for continued cooperation with the United States while choosing not to comment on Trump’s stated desire to swiftly end the war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both expressed a commitment to strengthening European defense and sovereignty, expressing thinly-veiled concerns over Trump’s likely ambitions regarding NATO.
Another notable response came from Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump and called for peaceful coexistence and mutual respect between the nations. The praise from China, however, follows remarks by the incoming president last month where Trump said he would not hesitate to impose steep tariffs on China if it were to attempt to blockade Taiwan.
Altogether, the global responses to Trump’s reelection signal challenges, but also opportunities, as the new administration prepares for work in January that could lead to new turbulence in U.S. foreign policy. While uncertainty remains, one thing seems clear: however the dynamics of the next four years unfold, they hold the potential for significantly reshaping the geopolitical landscape, with effects that may be felt for decades to come.
That concludes this week’s installment of The Intelligence Brief. You can read past editions of our newsletter at our website, or if you found this installment online, don’t forget to subscribe and get future email editions from us here. Also, if you have a tip or other information you’d like to send along directly to me, you can email me at micah [@] thedebrief [dot] org, or Tweet at me @MicahHanks.
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